Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Prop 8: A Guess At A Possible Outcome

Verrrry early results show Prop 8 winning - 52% according to the SoS site - at least when I can get it to load.

Basically, the only race I've done much with this cycle has been No on 8. I've phone banked, and I attempted to take a vacation day today to help GOTV for the No side.

They had no field program today.

Let me make that clear: no. field. program.

At least not in the Sacramento area.

You field people know how serious that sentence is.

I'm not sure why they bothered running phone banks or identifying No voters if they weren't going to use that data today. The first inkling I had that there was a problem was when the emails I received from the campaign sought Election Day volunteers to stand 100 feet from polling places to pass out information to voters.

[snatch the needle from the record]

Yeah, no really. It's been driving me nuts for the last week or so, but I don't blog that sh*t till the polls close. And we may still prevail, the measure may fail. Obviously I hope it does. But if it doesn't, I'll go ahead and blame the decision to abandon the ground on the only day that matters.

It was mentioned today that "we raised enough money to have professionals do the phone banks" today. I have no idea what that statement means. I don't know what professionals would've been hired. (I know that, as a voter, I can tell a paid caller from a volunteer every time.)

One person I spoke with today said he felt the No On 8 people outside his polling place were being disrespectful to voters and the process by being there - and this person was voting No on 8. The polling place is sacrosanct. Don't mess with it. And if you feel your campaign needs to stand there to make sure voters don't get confused then you 100% haven't done your job for the past howevermany months. Standing outside a precinct is NOT GOTV. It is visibility. It gives false indications of likely results. Visibility on Election Day is fine - but it's for the overflow volunteers, it is not a good use of human resources otherwise.

The "$%£&"%* site still isn't loading results fast or completely, so who knows what's happened since that first result.

More later. The president-elect is about to speak.

Part II: At the start of the No On 8 Campaign, I had heard that the effort would center - almost solely - on turning out the vote in SF and LA. If that ended up being the strategy in the long run, then tell me to drive my arse out to SF or down to LA and walk or call there. Don't waste my time and the campaign's money ineffectively and perhaps detrimentally spinning my wheels in Sacramento. I hope I'm being foolishly gloomy. Regardless of the outcome, however, I'll always prefer to play it GOTV-ly safe. That means a field program and some traditional voter contact and Election Day walking, phoning, and driving.

1 comment:

Paul Gowder said...

It's worse. I tried to volunteer. They never even called me back.