Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Late To The Linking, But Familiar With The Sentiment

The guys at fivethirtyeight.com were nearly dead-on in their projections for Election Day. Nice modeling, y'all!

Even though our 2004 day-after had a distinctly different tone, the post-election feelings of organizers and journos, I think, is fairly universal. This hit especially close to home:

There will be moments in the coming days, randomly standing in line at the grocery store, driving down the street in contemplation, the sight of a door you knocked, catching a certain song, a glimpse of Chuck Todd, hearing someone tell a story... where these emotions will just come bursting through, the enormity of it all. Just think of how much effort went into this. How much sacrifice. How many things had to go right. How many people had to want it so badly, and how the masterpiece of a campaign structure that David Plouffe and cohorts engineered allowed all that effort to be channeled into the right places to maximize efficiency.

More than anything else, this experience was shared.
Well said. And I feel you.

I note today, however, that the past that felt so present for the last few weeks, is drifting back again as I recognize the passage of four years and appreciate my inaction during this cycle. Long navel-gazing short: I don't like staying home. I shouldn't do that again.

Today, the story turned increasingly to the 50 State Model - the answer to the previous Clinton/DLC/New Democrat model. It worked. Howard Dean's grand experiment was ahead of its time, but it got us here. Four years is extraordinarily fast, if you think about the paradigmatic shift that might have taken/took place yesterday.

Stories to watch: My guess is that this is one of those things that will only be a quiet story, if it's a story at all. Another post notes, "Total turnout should be somewhere in the 125-130 million range, actually not that much higher than 122 million that turned out in 2004, but still very impressive by modern standards."

If San Francisco is any indication, reports of massive increases in turnout will turn out to be greatly exaggerated. It increased, sure. And there may still be stories about the way the demographics shifted within this cycle's voters. I want more data! Data!

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