Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Late Night Number Crunching

Like feeding Gizmo after midnight - playing with math this late is NOT a good idea . . . .

San Francisco has approximately 776k people (that's from the 2000 census - and from basic googling - not actual census data, primary resource research - but it's late.) Over 85% are 18 and over - that be eligible voters - about 663k potential voters. You can take away a chunk would aren't eligible for various reasons.

And to continue the sloppy late-night google research: in the June 2006 primary, there were about 420k registered voters.

According to the Chron's count, with 98% of precincts reporting, 53,419 votes were cast FOR prop 8, while 174,225 voted AGAINST prop 8.

Raise your hand if you see the problem. . . .

Was this solely San Francisco's fight? Absolutely not. Should they have been the epicenter of a massive voter education, outreach, and ultimately, GOTV effort? Abso-freakin'-lutely.

Did that happen? Am I totally, bat shit crazy in my late night analysis here?

My hunch is there was not a significant increase in voter turnout (remember: political scientists look at turnout over the number of ELIGIBLE, not REGISTERED voters - but either way . . . .). And ballot drop off helped make things look worse at this particular point in time. About 190k Obama votes came from the City and County of San Francisco.

It would be nearly impossible - maybe even implausible - to expect SF to turnout 200k additional No votes - but, to be perhaps stereotypical, is there another county in the state that you'd think would be *more* likely? Someone check my math and assumptions and prove me wrong.

I hope I wake up tomorrow and feel stupid for doubting we'd defeat this measure.

Update: LATimes.com has some good maps and filters. Fun with graphics!

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