Monday, April 21, 2008

Playing The Expectations Game In PA, And, The Importance Of GOTV

Obama predicts Clinton win in Pa. but says it will be close

Oh, does he? How Clintonian.

If tracking is true, Obama leads in vote-rich Philly, while Clinton leads pretty much everywhere else - from Pittsburgh through the red center.

GOTV is key. And I know Philly GOTV. With the right operation, you can win PA based on Philadelphia turn-out alone. The question is, does Obama have the field program to turn it out? I haven't heard much about either camp's field program since the very early days of the Iowa caucuses. My prediction: regardless of the outcome tomorrow, Wednesday's papers will contain analyses galore on who got whom to show up for whom.

This morning I had to rub the sleep from my eyes as I saw MSNBC/McClatchy's numbers on the margin for PA bowlers and beer drinkers. No really. We have cross-tabs for EVERYTHING these days. The guess was that, while Clinton leads in the redder ends of the state, Obama may succeed in keeping her people home by giving them enough negative information about her trustworthiness to make her less worth the effort.

Who has the most union support? Despite the demise of manufacturing in Pennsylvania, labor is still damn powerful in the Keystone State. Don't you question it and don't you forget it, my friends. With the unions seemingly split (there's a whole 'nother post there about the future of labor - but you probably won't see that post here), I'm not sure who I'd look to next for an indication of the group with the most organized program to devote to GOTV for either candidate on Tuesday. Ummm . . . yeah, no, I'm sorry - my head's too full of union boss anecdotes to recall who the next strongest walkers and callers were with. Well, MoveOn.org, but that's not really helpful in this context.

Oh, and us, dispatching the union volunteers, others, etc. So who from our group might still be there? There weren't that many native Pennsylvanians so I'm not sure. But there were many avowed Clinton supporters on post-election days in 2004. That was before Obama's rise.

I'll be interested to see the data on Wednesday . . . .

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