Tuesday, March 04, 2008

How we doing on totals?



Oh look. We still don't know anything. Oh well, still makes for great theater. You can't spell MSNBC without Mmmmm!

You know, Tim Russert referenced a memo that, supposedly, the Obama camp mistakenly sent to Bloomberg that forecasted an uncannily accurate future, calling the results of tonight's races nearly spot-on. My quick google of the subject didn't give me much and I lack the attention span to google more thoroughly, but it seems like the Obama camp has a genius for a pollster. Then again, I suppose the law of averages would hold that SOME pollster has to be right SOMEtime - maybe this was just dude's month.

Someone asked me earlier today what I thought the outcome would be. I predicted Ohio to Obama and Texas to Hillary, by a smaller margin than Obama would carry Ohio. So I was wrong pretty early in the evening. I didn't think Hillary would get both - then again, she does seem to get delegate rich states, while Obama just gets MORE states.

So now its on to Pennsylvania. Ah, Pennsylvania - home to Philly and all the political operative fund within its city limits. One word, y'all: turnout. Some talking head tonight implied that Obama had a better field operation than Clinton. Moreover, that Hillary DIDN'T have a field program. Given the kind of supporters and campaign staff she has, I find that hard to believe, though it does seem like Obama is the Dean 2.0 insofaras he has united new media with old school organization. Field is ultra-important. And as 2004 taught us, GOTVing the right parts of Pennsylvania will get you everywhere.

The question seems to be whether the lag time between now and PA a boon for the candidates or something that will potentially bust Democratic interest and energy. Guess we'll know eventually.

1 comment:

Catherine said...

Thanks for all of the analysis, Pho. Just got back from Ohio and still haven't come down from a HUGE night Tuesday.

Just for the record, HRC had a solid field campaign in Ohio. Obama had a large field campaign, and outspent HRC 2:1 in advertising (never seen so many newspaper ads in my life -- didn't know candidates still did that). Still, with a good field operation and an awesome media/public appearance operation, HRC rocked Ohio, winning 53 or 58 counties. I think it was the extraordinary personal time she and the President spent in Ohio that made the greatest impact, but you can't win so broadly without good field.