Thursday, January 03, 2008

Corn Futures

Who's it gonna be?

Part of me wants the results of tonight's caucuses to shed light on the inner biases that keep this country a step behind the rest of the world. If you think about it, all the major front runners have something "wrong" with them, at least according to some ignorant part of the population. A Mormon, an African American, a woman, a New Yorker, ANOTHER guy from Hope, Arkansas. Who wins? Which kind of Christian voters turn out for which kind of Christian?

And on the Democratic side: if history has any bearing at all then I'd say it will be between Edwards and Clinton because Edwards ran with Kerry who understood the importance of a ground campaign when Dean put all his eggs in the new-media basket and got whalloped accordingly. Then again, Mrs. Clinton is backed by mostly former Kerry people or other establishment heavies who can still work a midwestern state with the best of 'em.

So let's see - I'll be wrong, but I'll go with:

Democrats: Edwards over Hillary by no more than 3 points, with Obama not far behind. Who knows, perhaps the first 3 lose to Dodd or someother Kerry-esque, standard issue candidate. Actually, Dodd's not so bad.

Republicans: Mormon or Arkansan. Oh the choices. It's more bible-belty, though I think Mitt is the more mature candidate. But I saw Huckabee on Leno last night (I only watched 'cause of the issues discussed in yesterday's post - and those predictions were wrong) and he was great. And he rocked a bass guitar. I don't think he'd make it to the end, but he's really damn likable. And - having just watched "Jesus Camp," if people are going to pray to cardboard cutouts of Christian presidents, at least I'd like that one. And maybe the Iowan runner vote is very strong, in which case, Norris and Iowans will agree on Huckabee.

We'll see what happens . . . .

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

My picks (not based on anything beyond reading news reports. Barack by a bunch (five points or more) with a huge and close battle for second. The reason I say that is I don't think any of the Dems have separated themselves from the field, but by voting for Obama, I think voters realize they will have done something significant. The battle for second I am guessing will be between the candidate who should have won Iowa in a walk (Edwards) because he has campaigned there for four years straight and Clinton who has the state political machine. A very close race. On the Republican side, I think Huckabee with McCain who has made virtually no effort in Iowa finishing a very strong third. I think Republican's hate their choices, but Huckabee has a base and McCain should get all of the moderate votes. Right now polling shows most moderates voting for Romney, but if McCain has the people to make the right pitch for him, I think he swings a lot of support which both helps Huckabee and himself. After all, Romney is not only not a moderate, his campaign is helping McCain by not making an effort to swing moderates to his side. I could be completely wrong though and it will certainly be interesting.